Import volumes at major US container ports are experiencing pressure from rising tariffs and higher fuel costs, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have had limited direct impact on cargo flows, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The report indicates that while relatively little US-bound container cargo originates from the Middle East, broader supply chain disruptions tied to regional instability—particularly increased fuel prices—are affecting global shipping costs. Industry stakeholders note that these higher costs may eventually be passed on to retailers and consumers.

“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the US supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers, or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets.”

Tariff policy changes are also contributing to uncertainty. In March, President Donald Trump announced a temporary 10% global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, following a Supreme Court ruling the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal. Additional adjustments to Section 232 tariffs on metals, along with new tariffs targeting pharmaceutical products and ingredients, have added to the evolving trade landscape.

According to the report, rising fuel prices—driven in part by disruptions in key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz—are increasing transportation costs worldwide. Although US ports are not facing fuel shortages, global pricing dynamics are influencing domestic shipping expenses. Analysts note that higher fuel costs can raise the price of moving goods, contributing to inflationary pressures across the supply chain.

Import volumes have shown recent declines. US ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in February, a 7.5% decrease from January and a 4.2% drop year over year. February is typically the slowest month due to Lunar New Year-related factory shutdowns in Asia.

Looking ahead, March import volumes are projected at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% year over year. April is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, a 5.6% decline, while May and June are expected to see year-over-year increases of 7.3% and 6.9%, respectively. Volumes are then projected to decline again in July and August.

Overall, total imports for the first half of 2026 are forecast at 12.3 million TEU, down 1.8% compared with the same period in 2025. The report attributes some of the projected increases in late spring to comparisons with lower import levels in 2025 following tariff announcements made that year.

Global Port Tracker provides monthly data and forecasts for major US ports across the West, East, and Gulf coasts, offering insights into shipping trends and broader economic conditions affecting the retail industry.