Retail sales increased sharply in December, bringing overall 2025 holiday season results in line with the National Retail Federation (NRF)’s forecast for record consumer spending, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions.

Based on Retail Monitor data, holiday sales from November 1 through December 31, 2025, rose 4.1% compared with the same period in 2024. NRF had projected holiday sales growth between 3.7% and 4.2%, reaching just over $1 trillion. The forecast is based on U.S. Census Bureau data, though Census figures for December have not yet been released.

Total retail sales excluding auto dealers and gas stations increased 1.26% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in December and were up 3.54% year over year. In November, those sales rose 0.12% month over month and 4.53% year over year.

Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations, rose 1.6% month over month in December and increased 3.58% year over year. In comparison, core sales declined 0.04% month over month in November but were up 4.66% year over year.

The calendar shift of a late Thanksgiving in 2025 moved Cyber Monday into December, adding an extra high-volume shopping day to the month’s totals. As a result, Retail Monitor data show total retail sales for 2025 increased 4.93% over 2024, while core sales rose 5.08%.

The Retail Monitor differs from Census Bureau reporting by using anonymized credit and debit card transaction data compiled by Affinity Solutions rather than survey-based estimates, and its figures are not subject to monthly or annual revisions.

On a year-over-year basis, December sales increased in 6 of 9 retail categories, with clothing stores, sporting goods stores, and digital products showing the largest gains. Sales rose month over month across all tracked categories. Here are specifics from key sectors, seasonally adjusted from last month and unadjusted compared to last year:

• Clothing and accessories stores were up 2.05% from last month and up 6.11% compared to last year.

• Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores were up 3.52% from last month and up 5.16% compared to last year.

• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 0.98% from last month and up 3.6% compared to last year.

• General merchandise stores were up 2.9% from last month and up 3.42% compared to last year.

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.33% from last month and up 2.85% compared to last year.

• Health and personal care stores were up 1.92% from last month and up 2.5% compared to last year.

• Electronics and appliance stores were up 2.28% from last month but down 0.09% compared to last year.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.33% from last month but down 0.82% compared to last year.

• Building and garden supply stores were up 1.11% from last month but down 5.3% compared to last year.