Monthly import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are projected to fall below 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) for the remainder of the year, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The report attributes the expected slowdown to front-loaded shipments earlier in the year and ongoing tariff increases. Many retailers accelerated imports ahead of recently announced reciprocal tariffs and are now well stocked for the holiday season.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers front-loading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
New tariffs include a 25% rate on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities, set to take effect next week and rise again in January. A delayed tariff increase on imports from China is also scheduled for Nov. 10 unless extended or renegotiated.
“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” says Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
According to Global Port Tracker, U.S. ports handled 2.32 million TEU in August, down 2.9% from July but up 0.1% year over year. September volumes are estimated at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year, with October forecast at 1.97 million TEU (down 12.3%), November at 1.75 million TEU (down 19.2%), and December at 1.72 million TEU (down 19.4%).
The report notes that while overall declines reflect tariff-related shifts, year-over-year comparisons are also influenced by 2024’s early import surge amid port strike concerns. Total import volume for the first half of 2025 reached 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% from the same period last year, with the full-year forecast at 24.79 million TEU, a 2.9% decline from 2024.