Import cargo at major U.S. container ports is expected to increase through the summer months, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The anticipated surge follows a temporary 90-day reduction in tariffs recently imposed on goods from China.

The report noted that many retailers slowed or suspended imports after new tariffs were announced in April, but purchasing activity has resumed following a reduction in those tariffs from 145% to 30% and the implementation of a 90-day pause, which runs through Aug. 12. A similar pause on reciprocal tariffs affecting other countries is set to expire on July 9.

“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end.”

According to Hackett Associates, import volumes declined in May in response to the higher tariffs. U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in April, up 2.9% from March and 9.6% from April 2024. However, May imports were projected at 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4% from April and 8.1% year over year, marking the first annual decline since September 2023.

With some tariffs now on hold, import volumes are forecast to rise in June, though they will remain below 2024 levels. June is projected at 2.01 million TEU (down 6.2% year over year), July at 2.13 million TEU (down 8.1%), and August at 1.98 million TEU (down 14.7%). A significant decline is expected beginning in September as the tariff pauses expire and comparisons are made to unusually high import volumes in late 2024, which were driven by labor concerns at East and Gulf Coast ports.

The forecast projects total imports of 12.54 million TEU for the first half of 2025, a 3.7% increase over the same period in 2024. That figure represents an improvement over the 12.13 million TEU forecast prior to the tariff pause but remains below the 12.78 million TEU projection issued before the April tariff announcement.