U.S. import cargo volume is projected to end 2025 about 5.6% below 2024 levels as new tariffs weigh on international trade, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. 

The report, which provides data and forecasts for major U.S. container ports, estimates total 2025 volume at 24.1 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), compared with 25.5 million TEU in 2024. The forecast reflects a slowdown in shipments during the latter part of the year as importers accelerated orders in the first half to avoid recently implemented tariffs.

“Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses, especially, are grappling with the ability to stay in business,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment, and a slower economy.”

Ports covered in the report handled 1.96 million TEU in June, up 0.7% from May but down 8.4% from the same month in 2024. Preliminary estimates show July imports increasing to 2.3 million TEU, the highest in a year, and up 17.3% from June, before tapering off in the months ahead. Forecasts call for 2.2 million TEU in August (down 5% year over year), 1.83 million TEU in September (down 19.5%), 1.82 million TEU in October (down 18.9%), 1.71 million TEU in November (down 21.1%), and 1.72 million TEU in December (down 19.3%).

Although part of the expected year-over-year decline reflects front-loaded shipments in 2025, late-2024 volumes were also elevated by concerns over potential East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes, according to NRF.