Import activity at major US container ports is expected to remain elevated through September, as consumer spending continues to support retail demand despite tariffs, inflation, and higher fuel prices, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. September import volume is forecast to reach 2.31 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU), up 9.6% from a year earlier and potentially making it the busiest month of 2026.

The outlook marks a change from earlier expectations that this year’s peak shipping season had largely occurred in the spring and early summer, when retailers accelerated imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases. NRF now attributes the extended peak in part to continued consumer demand as well as vessel delays caused by bad weather in China and rerouting related to potential drought conditions affecting the Panama Canal.

“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “But consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices, and retailers keep bringing in merchandise to meet demand.”

US ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million TEU in July, up 3.2% from June but down 3.9% compared with July 2025. August volume is estimated at 2.29 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year.

Import volume is expected to ease after September, falling to 2.11 million TEU in October and 2 million TEU in November before increasing slightly to 2.03 million TEU in December. For the full year, imports are projected to total 25.7 million TEU, a 1% increase over 2025.

The Global Port Tracker report is produced by Hackett Associates for NRF and tracks imports at major US container ports on the East, West, and Gulf coasts.